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Answer: 3.5%
Explanation:
Expected return if there is a Boom:
= (0.75 * 0.15) + (0.25 * 0.05)
= 0.1250
Expected return if things go Bust:
= (0.75 * -0.05) + (0.25 * 0.05)
= -0.025
Expected return of Portfolio = ∑(Probability of market state * expected return of market state)
= (0.4 * 0.1250) + (0.6 * -0.025)
= 3.5%