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Organizing a fundraiser is a tough job, but calculating probabilities can improve your chances of getting pledges and donations. Let's look at the expected values, or empirical data. From the previous years’ donor lists, you have probability information about: the types of donors whether they pledged on the phone whether they actually donated The types of donors on your calling list and their probabilities are: gave last year (L), 60% gave in the past but not last year (P), 20% new contacts (N), 20% You can also make these assumptions based on information about past and prospective donors: Of last year's donors, 50% will pledge again and 80% of them will actually send the donation. Of past donors, 40% will pledge again and 60% of them will actually donate. Of new contacts, 10% pledge and 50% of them actually donate. The average amount pledged to your organization is: $280 from those who gave last year $160 from those who gave in the past but not last year $145 from new contacts Make a tree diagram or use conditional probabilities to calculate the probability of getting a donation from a donor of each type.

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When planning your fundraiser, knowing how likely each type of donor is to actually give can really help. Here’s a simplified breakdown based on past data:

Donors who gave last year:

Chance of donating: 40%. These are your most reliable donors, as they tend to pledge and follow through with their donations.

Donors who gave in the past but not last year:

Chance of donating: 24%. They’re less consistent than last year's donors but still worth reaching out to.

New contacts:

Chance of donating: 5%. They’re the least likely to donate based on past data, but it’s always good to try and engage them.

Overall, when considering all types of donors, there’s about a 30% chance of getting a donation. Understanding these probabilities can help you focus your efforts more effectively and improve your fundraising strategy.

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